🍄 MarkLv. 199Bug reports 115Suggestions 4Exploits 0
Here are the numbers from that test, chubby. We ran 1,000,000 Lupin kills through the real drop roll. An eraser dropped on 3.98% of kills (about 1 in 25). Right after an eraser dropped, the chance of another on the very next kill was 4.05%, the same as any other kill, so nothing builds up and nothing comes in pairs. The average gap between erasers was 25.1 kills, exactly what pure chance predicts, and a 75-kill dry spell happens about 5% of the time, so long streaks without one are just bad luck. The pairs you saw were erasers still lying on the ground: they only stop dropping once one is in your bag.
Two changes are now in from your report: Family's 2x drop, drop coupons and drop buffs now raise your chance at event drops like the Lupin Eraser (with a 2x bonus that's about 1 in 12), and each player rolls at their own bonus. The trade window now opens reliably after the other player accepts, and if a request ever seems stuck, sending a new one replaces it instead of making you wait.